Hydrology-Informed Metapopulation Modeling of Liver Fluke Transmission in the Lawa Lake Complex of Northeast Thailand

Principal Investigator


Tomas Leon
Dr. Vichian Plermkamon


January 2016 - TBD


Transmission of the Southeast Asian liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini involves several water-mediated steps for the intermediate host snails and fish and the egg and cercaria stages of parasite development. We introduce a modeling framework that incorporates hydrology model outputs from PCSWMM as time-varying input parameters in a metapopulation disease transmission model connecting several villages in the Lawa Lake system in northeast Thailand. We use data from the Lawa Project and run simulations from 2008-2016 of O. viverrini prevalence in human, reservoir host, snail, and fish populations in six village clusters around Lawa Lake. We present and describe reinfection data from human populations during this control program and leverage it to interpret data and model results. Based on these findings, we propose three disease prevalence curve patterns based on hydrologic characteristics of the surrounding environment and historical control program intensiveness to describe this system. The use of this linked hydrologic-epidemiologic modeling framework can be adapted for use to the environments, transmission processes, and seasonality of other infectious diseases affected by water movement.


There are no discussions for this research project.


No resource found.